Page 1 of 14
European Journal of Business &
Social Sciences
Available at https://ejbss.org/
ISSN: 2235-767X
Volume 07 Issue 02
February 2019
Available online: https://ejbss.org/ P a g e | 54
Trend Detection in Mean Annual Rainfall Using the Mann Kendall Test –
A Case Study of Sonepat District (Haryana)
Devender Singh
Research Scholar, Dept. of Geography, D.B.S. P.G. College, Dehradun
Email: devendersinghsura1@gmail.com
Dr. J. P. Gupta
Associate Professor, Dept. of Geography, D.B.S. P.G. College, Dehradun
E-mail: jpgupta3866@gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Precipitation refers to fall of atmospheric moisture either in liquid form or in solid
form. There are various types of precipitation like as rain, drizzle, snow, ice pellets, hail etc.
The existence of their availability depends upon temperature of dew point, altitude,
atmospheric conditions, process of adiabatic cooling etc. Sonepat is a district of the Haryana
state and having temperature regimes of hot semi – arid regions. Due to these temperature
regimes, most part of the precipitation occurs in the form of rainfall. Mean annual rainfall of
the district is 616.5 mm. About 76 per cent of the mean annual rainfall is recorded during the
south-west monsoon. The present research work has highlighted the trend and spatial pattern
of mean annual rainfall of Sonipat district during 1987 to 2015. Map of spatial pattern is
prepared by taking mean annual rainfall of four IMD stations (Sonepat, Gohana, Ganaur and
Kharkhoda) during 1987 to 2015 and then Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was
applied to obtain suitable result in Arc GIS software. The result revel that a large part of the
study area comes under the category of 550 – 600 mms mean annual rainfall which accounts
62.07 per cent area of the district. Year – wise trend of rainfall of Sonepat district can be
analyzed by the various statistical methods like correlation coefficients, coefficient of
determination, testing the significance, the equation of linear regression line and the Mann- Kendall trend test (z-statistics) between rainfall and time (1987 to 2015). The trend line of
mean annual rainfall against time shows that mean annual rainfall of the district decreased at
the rate of 0.52 mm/year. The computed value of t test for all IMD stations of the study area
is not greater than even the 20 per cent tabulated value of t hence; the correlation coefficient
Page 2 of 14
European Journal of Business &
Social Sciences
Available at https://ejbss.org/
ISSN: 2235-767X
Volume 07 Issue 02
February 2019
Available online: https://ejbss.org/ P a g e | 55
is quite insignificant. The results of Mann-Kendall trend test shows that there is no trend of
mean annual rainfall exists at all IMD stations of the study area and district as whole.
Keywords: Rainfall, Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW), Mann-Kendall Test.
INTRODUCTION
Precipitation refers to fall of atmospheric moisture either in liquid form or in solid
form. There are various types of precipitation like as rain, drizzle, snow, ice pellets, hail etc.
The existence of their availability depends upon temperature of dew point, altitude,
atmospheric conditions, process of adiabatic cooling etc. Out of these types of precipitation,
Rain, in fact, liquid water is the most important form of precipitation. It occurs when there is
sufficient moisture in the air and condensation occurs above freezing point. India has tropical
monsoon type of climate in which all form of precipitation occurs. The study area is the part
of India and it has also a sub-tropical continental monsoon climate with seasonal rhythm.
Sonepat district lies in the east central part of the Haryana state and having temperature
regimes of hot semi-arid regions. Due to these temperature regimes, most part of the
precipitation occurs in the form of rainfall in the study area (Rathee et al., 2009).
Rainfall is the most important element of economic and social condition of rural
population in the study area. Rainfall of the study area depends upon monsoon. Its
distribution is relatively satisfactory, and it mainly occurs in two to three months (July to
September) when the south-west monsoon arrives in this part of India. Some rain is
experienced due to the western disturbances during the winter season that starts from late
November and extends to about the mid of March. The annual rainfall varies considerably
from year to year. The monsoon period account for 75 per cent of annual rainfall in the
district. Annual monsoon rainfall of the district is 616.5 mm. About 76 per cent of the annual
rainfall is recorded during the south-west monsoon which occurred during June to September.
July is the wettest month of the year. Average south-west monsoon (June to September)
period accounts for 511.5 mm rainfall and north-east monsoon (October to December) period
accounts for 23.5 mm rainfall. The winter monsoon (January to March) period accounts 46.2
Page 3 of 14
European Journal of Business &
Social Sciences
Available at https://ejbss.org/
ISSN: 2235-767X
Volume 07 Issue 02
February 2019
Available online: https://ejbss.org/ P a g e | 56
mm rainfall and summer season (April to May) period accounts 35.3 mm rainfall (Agriculture
Contingency Plan District Sonepat, 2001).
STUDY AREA
District Sonepat is lying in the east central part of Haryana State near the National
Capital Delhi. Sonepat district is geographical located between 28048’15” to 29017’10” north
latitudes and 76028’40” to 77012’45” east longitudes (Figure 1) (Census of India,
Administrative Atlas of Haryana, 2001). It is one of the smallest districts in Haryana State
and covers 5.11 per cent area of the state. The Sonepat district comes into existence on 22
December 1972 from Rohtak district. Administratively, the district is under the control of
Rohtak division of Haryana and the district headquarters’ located at Sonepat city. The district
is divided into three administrative sub-divisions namely Sonepat, Gohana and Ganaur.
Sonepat, Gohana, Ganaur and Kharkhoda are the four tehsil of Sonepat district. Seven
Community Development Blocks of Mundlana, Kathura, Gohana, Ganaur, Sonepat,
Kharkhoda and Rai have been set up in the district for the development of rural areas.
According to Census of India 2011, there are 332 villages and only 8 towns in the district.
Out of 332 villages, 319 villages are inhabited and 13 villages are uninhabited. Sonepat
district is one of the densely populated districts of the state. The total population of the
district as per 2011 census is 1450001. The population density is 683 persons per sq. km
against the state average of 573 persons per sq. km (Statistical Abstract of Haryana, 2012 -
13).
DATA SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY
The study is related to Sonepat district of Haryana state and based on secondary data.
The rainfall data for 29 years (1987 to 2015) was collected from the Groundwater Cell,
Department of Agriculture, Rohtak. Groundwater Cell, Rohtak provide the rainfall data of
four IMD stations. Indian Meteorological Department, New Delhi set up four local IMD
observatories at Sonepat, Ganaur, Gohana and Kharkhoda; to measure the meteorological
data over the district. Topo-sheets (obtained from Survey of India) of the study area
numbering H43Q8, H43Q11, H43Q12, H43Q15, H43Q16, H43R4, H43W9, H43W13, and
