Page 1 of 9
Journal for Studies in Management and Planning
Available at
http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/
ISSN: 2395-0463
Volume 03 Issue 13
December 2017
Available online: http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/ P a g e | 249
Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture in India
Mr. Sandeep
JRF in Geography
Email: sndpkhkhr7@gmail.com
Abstract: Global climate change can be described as a change in the weather patterns that
characterize the regions of the world for a long period of time. On the other hand, the term
"weather" refers to the changes in temperature, precipitation or wind of a region over a short
period of time. Climatic change can affect agriculture in several ways such as quantity and
quality of crops in terms of productivity, growth rates, photosynthesis and transpiration rates,
moisture availability etc. It is likely to directly impact food production across the globe. Increase
in the mean seasonal temperature can reduce the duration of many crops and hence reduce
the yield. In areas where temperatures are already close to the physiological maxima for crops,
warming will impact yields more immediately. Climate change can alter atmospheric
composition which in turn can also influence food production directly by its impacts on plant
physiology. The consequences of climate change’s negative impact on agriculture are severe
which has great impact on the food production and may threaten the food security. Therefore,
adequate measures should be taken in this direction. The present research paper highlights
some negative effects of climate change on Indian agriculture in the changing global scenario.
Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, Indian Agriculture, Agricultural Production.
Introduction: The fact is that the rising
global temperature is not only causing
climate change but also causing irregular
rainfall patterns in turn affecting the
agriculture. Change in rainfall patterns,
increase in temperature, elevated CO2
content in the atmosphere is affecting the
crop production. According to a research
crop production is strongly influenced by
weathering parameters as compared to
other factors like soil and nutrient
management during the cropping season.
IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change) projected that the global
mean surface temperature will likely rise
and may result into uneven climatic
changes. This rising temperature may affect
crop yield at large scale. It has been
reported over 20th century that rising
temperature plays an important role
Page 2 of 9
Journal for Studies in Management and Planning
Available at
http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/
ISSN: 2395-0463
Volume 03 Issue 13
December 2017
Available online: http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/ P a g e | 250
towards global warming as compared to
precipitation. Researchers have confirmed
that crop yield falls by 3% to 5% for every
1°F increase in the temperature. Crop
production in India may be divided into two
seasons, namely Kharif and rabi. According
to a study, the crop production depends on
temperature. Temperature vs. crop
production shows a funnel shape for all the
seasons. For the lower temperature both
the properties are almost linearly
correlated. In case of rabi, at the beginning
production show a negative trend with
temperature which slowly converts to the
positive trend. On the other hand, in case of
kharif that negative trend is not visible. At
higher temperatures production increases
for both the seasons but with large
scattering. The findings may be helpful to
study the effect of climate change on the
crop production.
Climate Change and India: Recently
India has experiencing extreme weather
events which lead to change the climate.
Actually, global warming is one of the major
affecting parameter to change the climate.
In India, it is observed that the annual mean
temperature has increased at the rate of
0.42°C. Indian agriculture system is based
upon south-west and north-east monsoon.
Almost 80% of the total precipitation comes
from south-west monsoon in India. Any
fluctuations and uncertainties in long range
rainfall pattern may affect the agriculture
sector and also lead to increase the
frequency of droughts and floods at
regional scale. A significant increasing trend
in rainfall was reported along the west
coast, north Andhra Pradesh and North
West India and while significant decreasing
trend was observed over parts of Gujarat,
Madhya Pradesh and adjoining area, Kerala
and northeast India. North western region
of India gets affected by western
disturbances at small scale as such
disturbances have impact only on rabi
production only for not more than 20-30
days. Not only monsoon, but temperature
has also shown its effect on agriculture.
Extreme maximum and minimum
temperature showed an increasing trend in
the southern part whereas decreasing trend
in the northern part of India. Research
studies show that with the increase in
temperature, crop productivity is likely to
decrease in future. Hence, there is a need
to study the dependency of temperature on
Page 3 of 9
Journal for Studies in Management and Planning
Available at
http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/
ISSN: 2395-0463
Volume 03 Issue 13
December 2017
Available online: http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/ P a g e | 251
crop productivity, stability, yield and quality
to uplift the country’s economy.
It is a well-known fact that India’s
agriculture is more dependent on monsoon
from the ancient periods. Therefore, any
change in monsoon trend drastically affects
agriculture. Even the increasing
temperature is affecting the Indian
agriculture. In the Indo-Gangetic Plain,
these pre-monsoon changes will primarily
affect the wheat crop (>0.5o
C increase in
time slice 2010-2039; IPCC 2007). In the
states of Jharkhand, Odisha and
Chhattisgarh alone, rice production losses
during severe droughts average about 40%
of total production, with an estimated value
of $800 million. Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm
increases yields of rice, wheat, legumes and
oilseeds by 10-20%. A 1o
C increase in
temperature may reduce yields of wheat,
soybean, mustard, groundnut, and potato
by 3-7%. Much higher losses at higher
temperatures. Productivity of most crops to
decrease only marginally by 2020 but by 10-
40% by 2100 due to increases in
temperature, rainfall variability, and
decreases in irrigation water. The major
impacts of climate change will be on rain
fed or un-irrigated crops, which is cultivated
in nearly 60% of cropland. A temperature
rise by 0.5o
C in winter temperature is
projected to reduce rain fed wheat yield by
0.45 tonnes per hectare in India. Possibly
some improvement in yields of chickpea,
rabi maize, sorghum and millets; and
coconut in west coast. Less loss in potato,
mustard and vegetables in north-western
India due to reduced frost damage.
Increased droughts and floods are likely to
increase production variability. Therefore,
recent studies done at the Indian
Agricultural Research Institute indicate the
possibility of loss of 4 – 5 million tons in
wheat production in future with every rise
of 1o
C temperature throughout the growing
period. Rice production is slated to
decrease by almost a tonne/hectare if the
temperature goes up by 2 o
C. In Rajasthan,
a 2o
C rise in temperature was estimated to
reduce production of Pearl Millet by 10-
15%. If maximum and minimum
temperature rises by 3o
C and 3.5o
C
respectively, then Soyabean yields in M.P
will decline by 5% compared to 1998.
Agriculture will be worst affected in the
coastal regions of Gujarat and Maharashtra,
as fertile areas are vulnerable to inundation
and salinisation.
