Page 1 of 9

Journal for Studies in Management and Planning

Available at

http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/

ISSN: 2395-0463

Volume 03 Issue 13

December 2017

Available online: http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/ P a g e | 249

Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture in India

Mr. Sandeep

JRF in Geography

Email: sndpkhkhr7@gmail.com

Abstract: Global climate change can be described as a change in the weather patterns that

characterize the regions of the world for a long period of time. On the other hand, the term

"weather" refers to the changes in temperature, precipitation or wind of a region over a short

period of time. Climatic change can affect agriculture in several ways such as quantity and

quality of crops in terms of productivity, growth rates, photosynthesis and transpiration rates,

moisture availability etc. It is likely to directly impact food production across the globe. Increase

in the mean seasonal temperature can reduce the duration of many crops and hence reduce

the yield. In areas where temperatures are already close to the physiological maxima for crops,

warming will impact yields more immediately. Climate change can alter atmospheric

composition which in turn can also influence food production directly by its impacts on plant

physiology. The consequences of climate change’s negative impact on agriculture are severe

which has great impact on the food production and may threaten the food security. Therefore,

adequate measures should be taken in this direction. The present research paper highlights

some negative effects of climate change on Indian agriculture in the changing global scenario.

Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, Indian Agriculture, Agricultural Production.

Introduction: The fact is that the rising

global temperature is not only causing

climate change but also causing irregular

rainfall patterns in turn affecting the

agriculture. Change in rainfall patterns,

increase in temperature, elevated CO2

content in the atmosphere is affecting the

crop production. According to a research

crop production is strongly influenced by

weathering parameters as compared to

other factors like soil and nutrient

management during the cropping season.

IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change) projected that the global

mean surface temperature will likely rise

and may result into uneven climatic

changes. This rising temperature may affect

crop yield at large scale. It has been

reported over 20th century that rising

temperature plays an important role

Page 2 of 9

Journal for Studies in Management and Planning

Available at

http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/

ISSN: 2395-0463

Volume 03 Issue 13

December 2017

Available online: http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/ P a g e | 250

towards global warming as compared to

precipitation. Researchers have confirmed

that crop yield falls by 3% to 5% for every

1°F increase in the temperature. Crop

production in India may be divided into two

seasons, namely Kharif and rabi. According

to a study, the crop production depends on

temperature. Temperature vs. crop

production shows a funnel shape for all the

seasons. For the lower temperature both

the properties are almost linearly

correlated. In case of rabi, at the beginning

production show a negative trend with

temperature which slowly converts to the

positive trend. On the other hand, in case of

kharif that negative trend is not visible. At

higher temperatures production increases

for both the seasons but with large

scattering. The findings may be helpful to

study the effect of climate change on the

crop production.

Climate Change and India: Recently

India has experiencing extreme weather

events which lead to change the climate.

Actually, global warming is one of the major

affecting parameter to change the climate.

In India, it is observed that the annual mean

temperature has increased at the rate of

0.42°C. Indian agriculture system is based

upon south-west and north-east monsoon.

Almost 80% of the total precipitation comes

from south-west monsoon in India. Any

fluctuations and uncertainties in long range

rainfall pattern may affect the agriculture

sector and also lead to increase the

frequency of droughts and floods at

regional scale. A significant increasing trend

in rainfall was reported along the west

coast, north Andhra Pradesh and North

West India and while significant decreasing

trend was observed over parts of Gujarat,

Madhya Pradesh and adjoining area, Kerala

and northeast India. North western region

of India gets affected by western

disturbances at small scale as such

disturbances have impact only on rabi

production only for not more than 20-30

days. Not only monsoon, but temperature

has also shown its effect on agriculture.

Extreme maximum and minimum

temperature showed an increasing trend in

the southern part whereas decreasing trend

in the northern part of India. Research

studies show that with the increase in

temperature, crop productivity is likely to

decrease in future. Hence, there is a need

to study the dependency of temperature on

Page 3 of 9

Journal for Studies in Management and Planning

Available at

http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/

ISSN: 2395-0463

Volume 03 Issue 13

December 2017

Available online: http://edupediapublications.org/journals/index.php/JSMaP/ P a g e | 251

crop productivity, stability, yield and quality

to uplift the country’s economy.

It is a well-known fact that India’s

agriculture is more dependent on monsoon

from the ancient periods. Therefore, any

change in monsoon trend drastically affects

agriculture. Even the increasing

temperature is affecting the Indian

agriculture. In the Indo-Gangetic Plain,

these pre-monsoon changes will primarily

affect the wheat crop (>0.5o

C increase in

time slice 2010-2039; IPCC 2007). In the

states of Jharkhand, Odisha and

Chhattisgarh alone, rice production losses

during severe droughts average about 40%

of total production, with an estimated value

of $800 million. Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm

increases yields of rice, wheat, legumes and

oilseeds by 10-20%. A 1o

C increase in

temperature may reduce yields of wheat,

soybean, mustard, groundnut, and potato

by 3-7%. Much higher losses at higher

temperatures. Productivity of most crops to

decrease only marginally by 2020 but by 10-

40% by 2100 due to increases in

temperature, rainfall variability, and

decreases in irrigation water. The major

impacts of climate change will be on rain

fed or un-irrigated crops, which is cultivated

in nearly 60% of cropland. A temperature

rise by 0.5o

C in winter temperature is

projected to reduce rain fed wheat yield by

0.45 tonnes per hectare in India. Possibly

some improvement in yields of chickpea,

rabi maize, sorghum and millets; and

coconut in west coast. Less loss in potato,

mustard and vegetables in north-western

India due to reduced frost damage.

Increased droughts and floods are likely to

increase production variability. Therefore,

recent studies done at the Indian

Agricultural Research Institute indicate the

possibility of loss of 4 – 5 million tons in

wheat production in future with every rise

of 1o

C temperature throughout the growing

period. Rice production is slated to

decrease by almost a tonne/hectare if the

temperature goes up by 2 o

C. In Rajasthan,

a 2o

C rise in temperature was estimated to

reduce production of Pearl Millet by 10-

15%. If maximum and minimum

temperature rises by 3o

C and 3.5o

C

respectively, then Soyabean yields in M.P

will decline by 5% compared to 1998.

Agriculture will be worst affected in the

coastal regions of Gujarat and Maharashtra,

as fertile areas are vulnerable to inundation

and salinisation.