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Abstract

This study investigates the relationship external reserves, trade dynamics and sustainable growth in Nigeria between from 2000 to 2022. Utilizing Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test for stationarity, vector auto regression (VAR) model and pairwise Granger causality tests, the research reveals a significant unidirectional causal relationship between HDI and EXR, indicating that human development improves external reserves. Nevertheless, fluctuations in external reserves and oil import trade have a negative impact on HDI, whereas non-oil export trade has a positive influence on human development. The model's explanatory Rsquared of 86% confirms the relevance of these variables in understanding economic dynamics. The study recommends prioritising human development initiatives, diversifying the economy, strengthening external reserve management, encouraging trade liberalisation, and continuously monitoring economic policies to foster sustainable growth in Nigeria. The research offers valuable policy implications for enhancing economic resilience and improving the quality of life for citizens. The study also highlights the need for effective management of foreign reserves and diversification of trade activities to promote sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

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